Behind the Escalation: Unpacking the US-Iran Conflict and the Future of Diplomacy

How Decades of Pressure, Trump's Volatility, and Misinformation Pushed the Middle East to the Brink.

The recent 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran, which dramatically drew in the United States, represents a chilling culmination of long-standing geopolitical tensions and a dangerous lack of strategic foresight. This interview delves into the insights of Iranian-American journalist Negar Mortazavi, dissecting the forces that ignited this escalation, the devastating consequences of a foreign policy driven by impulse, and the fragile path forward for diplomacy.

Netanyahu's Relentless Pursuit of War

For over two decades, Benjamin Netanyahu has relentlessly pushed for the United States to engage in military action against Iran, echoing the playbook used for Iraq and Afghanistan. His consistent efforts have aimed to sabotage any diplomatic overtures between Tehran and Washington, viewing diplomacy as an obstacle to his desired conflict. This pattern has played out across multiple U.S. administrations, from Obama's nuclear deal to the recent attempts at dialogue under the Trump regime.

The most recent escalation was no accident. Just days before a scheduled round of talks between Iran and the U.S., Netanyahu launched an attack on Iran, a move seemingly calculated to derail diplomacy and ensnare the U.S. in a broader conflict. The initial U.S. response was hesitant, offering a "yellow light" and attempting to distance itself from the Israeli operation. However, as the Israeli offensive appeared to gain traction, Donald Trump quickly reversed course, praising the "excellent, spectacular" operation and eventually joining with a significant strike on Iran's nuclear program. This swift 180-degree turn underscored the volatile nature of Trump's foreign policy decision-making.

The Echoes of WMDs: Debunking the Nuclear Threat

The rhetoric surrounding Iran's nuclear program bore an unsettling resemblance to the justifications for the Iraq War, with claims of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) and a manufactured sense of urgency. Despite the consensus among international intelligence agencies and even Trump's own national security figures that Iran did not possess nuclear weapons capability, the administration pushed a narrative of an imminent threat.

Mortazavi emphasizes the critical distinction between opposition to the Iranian regime's domestic repression and opposition to military conflict. The American public, weary from the "forever wars" in Iraq and Afghanistan, largely opposes another large-scale engagement in the Middle East. Trump, who campaigned as a "president of peace" against such wars, found himself caught between his base's anti-war sentiment and the hawkish pressures from neoconservatives, segments of the foreign policy elite, and powerful lobby groups, including those aligned with Israel.

During the U.S. attack, prior "chatter" and even "advanced notice" to Iran meant that the U.S. strike was not as deadly as Israel's "relentless bombing," which tragically killed over a thousand people and injured thousands more, predominantly civilians. While the U.S. destroyed infrastructure at key nuclear sites like Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz, the highly contested enriched uranium was reportedly moved to unknown locations. In response, Iran has limited international monitoring by the UN watch IAEA, signaling a decreased willingness to cooperate if its civilian program is simultaneously bombed. This raises serious questions about the long-term effectiveness of such military interventions, with nuclear experts consistently warning that bombing cannot fully eliminate a nuclear program.

The Fragile Path of Diplomacy in a Volatile Era

The destructive cycle of escalating tensions highlights the desperate need for diplomacy, yet the current administration's approach is deeply flawed. The previous Obama-era nuclear deal, achieved after years of painstaking negotiations, was unilaterally "blown up" by Trump, undermining U.S. credibility on the global stage. This act of political spite, driven by a desire to undo his predecessor's legacy, signals to foreign nations that U.S. agreements are subject to the whims of changing administrations.

Mortazavi points out a paradoxical "silver lining": if Trump, a Republican, were to strike a deal with Iran, it might paradoxically be more sustainable, as a future Democratic administration would hopefully not unravel it in the same way. However, the current administration's understanding of diplomacy is "skewed." They seem to believe in "peace through strength," where bombing and "strong-arming" adversaries are prerequisites for negotiations, rather than the traditional give-and-take. This dangerous approach risks further flare-ups and the potential for larger, uncontrolled conflicts.

Regime Change and the Rarity of Unity

The concept of regime change in Iran, intermittently floated by the Trump administration, appears to have little public support in the U.S., given the disastrous outcomes in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya. Inside Iran, the military attacks actually produced a counterintuitive effect. Despite significant internal legitimacy challenges, the regime saw "not one protest during the war." Instead, there was a "rallying around the country, the homeland," as citizens united against external aggression. The "freedom bombs" that landed on homes, hospitals, and ambulances starkly revealed that external military intervention is often perceived as an attack on the populace, regardless of their views on their own government.

The current situation is one of immense complexity and risk. As Mortazavi underscores, finding a viable diplomatic solution remains the only path forward, but it requires patience, strategy, and a nuanced understanding of a region that the current U.S. foreign policy establishment demonstrably lacks. The consequences of continuing down this path of "major escalations" and volatile decision-making could be catastrophic for both the region and global stability

Watch the full interview with Negar Mortazavi on YouTube now!